10/2/2023 0 Comments Will it hail today near me![]() Outlook Imagesĭay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 ![]() Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, and from the Alabama vicinity to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia on Thursday. Outlook for Thursday, August 10 Outlook Summary NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z ← back to overview For more info on short term severe potential, see MCD 1925. Isolated strong storms may continue another couple of hours further south/southwest across north TX. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard, though a couple of tornadoes and hail main also occur. With time a severe MCS is expected to spread east/southeast across the Mid-South toward the TN Valley tonight. While uncertainty is a bit higher than normal given concerns over storm mode, this environment typically would support tornado potential either in embedded supercells or via QLCS tornadoes. Furthermore, effective shear magnitudes greater that 45 kt and strong instability are noted. ![]() The 00z RAOB from LZK shows enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH near 250 m2/s2. This area has the best environment to support tornado potential this evening. The main change to this region was to shrink the 10 percent sig tornado probability area and confine it to north-central/northeast AR to the MO Bootheel. The main severe risk from parts of OK/AR into the Mid-South/TN Valley) remains largely unchanged. Severe probabilities have also been trimmed from parts of MO/IL/IN/OH where weaker stability/shear and a worked over airmass from earlier convection resides, resulting in low severe storm potential the remainder of the evening. The main changes with the 01z update were to remove severe probabilities from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley into tonight. Valid 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
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